Yesterday's November CPI report indicates that underlying inflation is making steady, if unspectacular, progress towards 2%, but...

In the latest quarter, real consumption in the United States grew at a robust 3.7% annual rate. Goods consumption surged at an impressive...

The Q3 slowdown in payroll growth (smaller than previously advertised) is a productivity story, not a recession story. See charts below:

The downturn in PMI manufacturing new orders continues: after this week's flash PMIs we estimate the weighted G5 average will be down...

Taken as a whole, this week's US labour market data, including today's Employment Report, gives the FOMC enough cover to start easing...

The PMIs for August are in and the weighted manufacturing new orders for the G5 continued to slide. The G5 index fell to 47.2...

No sign from today's PCE report that aggregate consumer spending is slowing down. Slightly the opposite in fact...

Core inflation ex-shelter is now running at 1.6% per annum over the past 6 months. And though shelter costs remain stubbornly high...

By coincidence or not, the sudden downturn in global risk appetite fits our short-term forecast for Global Industrial Production...

The July US payrolls report was the catalyst for a rash of recession fears, prompting the mini crash in risk assets and a...

The June US PCE report confirms that prices in the services sector are swinging lower again after a pretty hot first quarter. As the...

More commentary to follow...

Last Friday's May Non-Farm Payroll report looked like a blockbuster (plus 272,000 on the month). And private payroll growth looks to be...

Ahead of tomorrow's employment report the labour market is "semi-normal". Demand is easing but supply hasn't quite caught up. US job...

Post-COVID normalisation means that services have been outperforming manufacturing through most of the current recovery in Global PMIs...

COVID completely up-ended the normal relationship between global goods and services spending in the economy, which has made the global...

The Goods sector has done most of the legwork in bringing down underlying inflation in the last 6 months. But with fresh tariffs...

Chinese President Xi’s visit to Europe has been dominated by trade issues, particularly relating to China’s industrial overcapacity...

In level terms euro zone production peaked roughly 6 month after Russia invaded Ukraine and then fell around 7% through October 2023...

US data on growth and inflation is not following the rate cut script...