September Payrolls: The Economy's Doing Fine
The Q3 slowdown in payroll growth (smaller than previously advertised) is a productivity story, not a recession story. See charts below:
top of page
Search
Jonathan Wilmot
Sep 262 min read
False Alarm?
The downturn in PMI manufacturing new orders continues: after this week's flash PMIs we estimate the weighted G5 average will be down...
7 views
Alex Haseldine
Sep 63 min read
Flirting with Fifty
Taken as a whole, this week's US labour market data, including today's Employment Report, gives the FOMC enough cover to start easing...
28 views
Alex Haseldine
Sep 61 min read
PMIs: Heading into Autumn?
The PMIs for August are in and the weighted manufacturing new orders for the G5 continued to slide. The G5 index fell to 47.2...
14 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Aug 301 min read
US PCE Report: Still Shopping
No sign from today's PCE report that aggregate consumer spending is slowing down. Slightly the opposite in fact...
3 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Aug 151 min read
Three Cuts or Four?
Core inflation ex-shelter is now running at 1.6% per annum over the past 6 months. And though shelter costs remain stubbornly high...
17 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Aug 82 min read
Global IP, Risk Appetite and Earnings
By coincidence or not, the sudden downturn in global risk appetite fits our short-term forecast for Global Industrial Production...
19 views
Alex Haseldine
Aug 63 min read
Not as Bad as it Feels
The July US payrolls report was the catalyst for a rash of recession fears, prompting the mini crash in risk assets and a...
16 views
Alex Haseldine
Jul 261 min read
Swing Low
The June US PCE report confirms that prices in the services sector are swinging lower again after a pretty hot first quarter. As the...
12 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Jun 102 min read
It Ain't Necessarily So
Last Friday's May Non-Farm Payroll report looked like a blockbuster (plus 272,000 on the month). And private payroll growth looks to be...
19 views
Alex Haseldine
Jun 61 min read
Semi-Normal
Ahead of tomorrow's employment report the labour market is "semi-normal". Demand is easing but supply hasn't quite caught up. US job...
7 views
Alex Haseldine
Jun 61 min read
At Your Service
Post-COVID normalisation means that services have been outperforming manufacturing through most of the current recovery in Global PMIs...
3 views
Jonathan Wilmot
May 192 min read
Messy Momentum
COVID completely up-ended the normal relationship between global goods and services spending in the economy, which has made the global...
10 views
Alex Haseldine
May 151 min read
Goods News
The Goods sector has done most of the legwork in bringing down underlying inflation in the last 6 months. But with fresh tariffs...
11 views
Jonathan Wilmot
May 72 min read
China's Solar Eclipse
Chinese President Xi’s visit to Europe has been dominated by trade issues, particularly relating to China’s industrial overcapacity...
7 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Apr 181 min read
EZ Production Stabilising as Energy Squeeze Abates
In level terms euro zone production peaked roughly 6 month after Russia invaded Ukraine and then fell around 7% through October 2023...
3 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Apr 112 min read
A Window Open in July?
US data on growth and inflation is not following the rate cut script...
12 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Apr 91 min read
Europe:Trying to Do Better
Industrial production in Europe has been one of the weakest parts of the world economy over the past 12 to 15 months...
12 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Apr 51 min read
Picking Up Steam?
Another strong payrolls report for March means that employment growth picked up in Q1:2024.
15 views
bottom of page