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Europe:Trying to Do Better
Industrial production in Europe has been one of the weakest parts of the world economy over the past 12 to 15 months...
Jonathan Wilmot
Apr 9, 20241 min read
12 views

Picking Up Steam?
Another strong payrolls report for March means that employment growth picked up in Q1:2024.
Jonathan Wilmot
Apr 5, 20241 min read
15 views

What is the Fed Saying?
After Wednesday's FOMC meeting, the Fed signaled that they expect to make 3 rate cuts by the end of this year, and another 3 next year....
Jonathan Wilmot
Mar 22, 20242 min read
16 views

Euro Zone Production: Still Sliding
Despite the bounce in manufacturing PMI new orders over recent months European industry had a grim start to 2024. January euro area...
Alex Haseldine
Mar 13, 20242 min read
17 views

Mainstreet Hurting
The update to the NFIB survey underlines what small cap underperformance has been telling us...
Alex Haseldine
Mar 12, 20241 min read
21 views

Bearish Divergence?
Typically it’s a warning sign for future economic growth and equity performance when: 1) US Household Survey Employment is...
Jonathan Wilmot
Mar 11, 20241 min read
35 views

Balancing Act
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 275k, (but after taking into account downward revisions for December and January, it was 108k)
Alex Haseldine
Mar 8, 20241 min read
13 views


European Goods Demand: Missing in Action
Euro area goods demand should be resurgent...after a prolonged period of weakness, euro area retail sales should be recovering...they aren't
Jonathan Wilmot
Mar 7, 20243 min read
16 views

The Other Target
In August 2020, the Fed officially adopted the 'Average Inflation Target'. Here's an update on the Price Level Target...
Alex Haseldine
Mar 1, 20241 min read
12 views


Should They or Shouldn't They?
Looking at core inflation less shelter, you could say that we have reached a growth rate that is consistent with the Fed's target of 2%....
Alex Haseldine
Mar 1, 20241 min read
21 views

What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
A quick update of World Wealth and the US Real Equity Return Cycle.
Jonathan Wilmot
Feb 29, 20244 min read
26 views


What a Difference an AI Makes
Nvidia latest earnings report had more market impact than all of last week's busy macro calendar put together...
Jonathan Wilmot
Feb 27, 20241 min read
34 views


China's Green Leap Forward
China is on the cusp of its green transition...
Jonathan Wilmot
Jan 26, 20243 min read
38 views

Why are we waiting?
For most intents and purposes inflation is now running close to 2% per annum, or even slightly below...
Alex Haseldine
Jan 26, 20241 min read
30 views


Holding Steady
The flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for December indicates that output price pressures have stabilised within the 'normal'...
Alex Haseldine
Dec 15, 20231 min read
14 views

US Labour Market: Almost Back to Normal
Friday's US employment report showed that the rate of private payroll gains ticked up slightly, but at 1.3% the annualised rate in...
Alex Haseldine
Dec 11, 20232 min read
34 views

Fire and Ice
Over the past year global industrial production has been remarkably flat: no boom, no bust. Looking just at China and the US, the facts...
Alex Haseldine
Dec 6, 20231 min read
16 views


Fours Reasons To Be Thankful
And two to be cautious. Reasons to be cheerful... Rate Shift: over the past 4-6 weeks markets have shifted rapidly towards the idea that...
Alex Haseldine
Dec 5, 20235 min read
38 views

Not Confident
The Fed isn’t yet confident that it has done enough to return inflation to target, but equally not confident that it hasn’t done enough....
Alex Haseldine
Nov 3, 20231 min read
18 views

Disinflation Set to Slow Down
After 2 very benign CPI reports for June and July the August report was slightly more concerning. The good news is that core inflation...
Jonathan Wilmot
Sep 13, 20232 min read
33 views
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