Jonathan Wilmot
No Rush To Cut Rates?
Ahead of the March FOMC meeting the much repeated mantra - from Fed officials and private sector pundits - is that easing too quickly...
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Jonathan Wilmot
Mar 180 min read
Litmus Tests
Most of the time equity markets trend higher when upward earnings revisions are rising. And most of the time upwards earnings revisions...
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Jonathan Wilmot
Feb 150 min read
Productivity and Other Puzzles
Productivity made a strong comeback in 2023 and the future looks bright…..
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Jonathan Wilmot
Feb 20 min read
Bound to be Behind
Central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic have a consistent message: monetary policy is already restrictive, inflation is normalising...
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Jonathan Wilmot
Jan 190 min read
Going Nowhere Fast
Global industrial production has been going nowhere fast for the last 15 months. Based on the latest available data we don’t expect...
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Jonathan Wilmot
Dec 21, 20230 min read
Small Bust, Big Bubble?
At this time last year, economists and business leaders were still unusually gloomy – and unusually wrong. Even though global equity...
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Jonathan Wilmot
Nov 5, 20230 min read
The Missing Word
Chairman Powell’s FOMC press conference last Wednesday lit a touch paper to bond and stock prices globally.
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Jonathan Wilmot
Jul 14, 20230 min read
Postponed or Cancelled?
Uncertainty rules on both the secular and cyclical front...
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Jonathan Wilmot
May 28, 20230 min read
The Missing Link
In Narrative Economics Robert Shiller documents how asset prices are often driven by stories: narratives that may be true, half true or....
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Jonathan Wilmot
Jan 31, 20230 min read
Have We Got The Energy?
It's only a slight simplification to say that energy prices remain the swing variable in the outlook for global growth...
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