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Alex Haseldine
Jun 61 min read
Semi-Normal
Ahead of tomorrow's employment report the labour market is "semi-normal". Demand is easing but supply hasn't quite caught up. US job...
7 views
Alex Haseldine
Jun 61 min read
At Your Service
Post-COVID normalisation means that services have been outperforming manufacturing through most of the current recovery in Global PMIs...
3 views
Alex Haseldine
May 201 min read
US GDP Tracker, Earnings Revisions
So far the reporting season for US equities has seen net upward earnings revisions pushing higher again. And our GDP tracker has ticked...
7 views
Jonathan Wilmot
May 192 min read
Messy Momentum
COVID completely up-ended the normal relationship between global goods and services spending in the economy, which has made the global...
10 views
Alex Haseldine
May 151 min read
Goods News
The Goods sector has done most of the legwork in bringing down underlying inflation in the last 6 months. But with fresh tariffs...
11 views
Jonathan Wilmot
May 72 min read
China's Solar Eclipse
Chinese President Xi’s visit to Europe has been dominated by trade issues, particularly relating to China’s industrial overcapacity...
7 views
Alex Haseldine
May 42 min read
Captain Sensible Saves the Day
Powell and payrolls revive rate cut hopes Chairman Powell played Captain Sensible on Wednesday, doing just enough to keep rate cut hopes...
32 views
Alex Haseldine
Apr 262 min read
Inconvenient Headlines
The headline from yesterday’s GDP data was that growth slowed and inflation accelerated in Q1:24. The inflation part was confirmed by...
10 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Apr 181 min read
EZ Production Stabilising as Energy Squeeze Abates
In level terms euro zone production peaked roughly 6 month after Russia invaded Ukraine and then fell around 7% through October 2023...
3 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Apr 112 min read
A Window Open in July?
US data on growth and inflation is not following the rate cut script...
12 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Apr 91 min read
Europe:Trying to Do Better
Industrial production in Europe has been one of the weakest parts of the world economy over the past 12 to 15 months...
12 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Apr 51 min read
Picking Up Steam?
Another strong payrolls report for March means that employment growth picked up in Q1:2024.
15 views
Alex Haseldine
Mar 251 min read
US GDP Tracker: Slowing Not Slumping
Our High-Frequency GDP tracker has come down from 3.1% per annum last October to 2.1% pa in mid-March 2024. That's up slightly from a...
23 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Mar 222 min read
What is the Fed Saying?
After Wednesday's FOMC meeting, the Fed signaled that they expect to make 3 rate cuts by the end of this year, and another 3 next year....
15 views
Alex Haseldine
Mar 203 min read
No Rush to Cut Rates?
Ahead of the March FOMC meeting the much repeated mantra - from Fed officials and private sector pundits - is that easing too quickly and...
18 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Mar 200 min read
No Rush To Cut Rates?
Ahead of the March FOMC meeting the much repeated mantra - from Fed officials and private sector pundits - is that easing too quickly...
4 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Mar 180 min read
Litmus Tests
Most of the time equity markets trend higher when upward earnings revisions are rising. And most of the time upwards earnings revisions...
14 views
Alex Haseldine
Mar 132 min read
Euro Zone Production: Still Sliding
Despite the bounce in manufacturing PMI new orders over recent months European industry had a grim start to 2024. January euro area...
17 views
Alex Haseldine
Mar 121 min read
Mainstreet Hurting
The update to the NFIB survey underlines what small cap underperformance has been telling us...
21 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Mar 111 min read
Bearish Divergence?
Typically it’s a warning sign for future economic growth and equity performance when: 1) US Household Survey Employment is...
35 views
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