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Alex Haseldine
Mar 81 min read
Balancing Act
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 275k, (but after taking into account downward revisions for December and January, it was 108k)
13 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Mar 73 min read
European Goods Demand: Missing in Action
Euro area goods demand should be resurgent...after a prolonged period of weakness, euro area retail sales should be recovering...they aren't
16 views
Alex Haseldine
Mar 11 min read
The Other Target
In August 2020, the Fed officially adopted the 'Average Inflation Target'. Here's an update on the Price Level Target...
12 views
Alex Haseldine
Mar 11 min read
Should They or Shouldn't They?
Looking at core inflation less shelter, you could say that we have reached a growth rate that is consistent with the Fed's target of 2%....
21 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Feb 294 min read
What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
A quick update of World Wealth and the US Real Equity Return Cycle.
26 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Feb 271 min read
What a Difference an AI Makes
Nvidia latest earnings report had more market impact than all of last week's busy macro calendar put together...
34 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Feb 150 min read
Productivity and Other Puzzles
Productivity made a strong comeback in 2023 and the future looks bright…..
10 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Feb 20 min read
Bound to be Behind
Central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic have a consistent message: monetary policy is already restrictive, inflation is normalising...
9 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Jan 263 min read
China's Green Leap Forward
China is on the cusp of its green transition...
37 views
Alex Haseldine
Jan 261 min read
Why are we waiting?
For most intents and purposes inflation is now running close to 2% per annum, or even slightly below...
29 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Jan 190 min read
Going Nowhere Fast
Global industrial production has been going nowhere fast for the last 15 months. Based on the latest available data we don’t expect...
5 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Dec 21, 20230 min read
Small Bust, Big Bubble?
At this time last year, economists and business leaders were still unusually gloomy – and unusually wrong. Even though global equity...
4 views
Alex Haseldine
Dec 15, 20231 min read
Holding Steady
The flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for December indicates that output price pressures have stabilised within the 'normal'...
14 views
Alex Haseldine
Dec 11, 20232 min read
US Labour Market: Almost Back to Normal
Friday's US employment report showed that the rate of private payroll gains ticked up slightly, but at 1.3% the annualised rate in...
34 views
Alex Haseldine
Dec 6, 20231 min read
Fire and Ice
Over the past year global industrial production has been remarkably flat: no boom, no bust. Looking just at China and the US, the facts...
16 views
Alex Haseldine
Dec 5, 20235 min read
Fours Reasons To Be Thankful
And two to be cautious. Reasons to be cheerful... Rate Shift: over the past 4-6 weeks markets have shifted rapidly towards the idea that...
38 views
Alex Haseldine
Nov 15, 20232 min read
Homes Alone..and a bit of car insurance
The October US CPI was a relief to markets. Global bonds and stocks extended their rally which began just before the last FOMC meeting 2...
13 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Nov 5, 20230 min read
The Missing Word
Chairman Powell’s FOMC press conference last Wednesday lit a touch paper to bond and stock prices globally.
4 views
Alex Haseldine
Nov 3, 20231 min read
Not Confident
The Fed isn’t yet confident that it has done enough to return inflation to target, but equally not confident that it hasn’t done enough....
18 views
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