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Alex Haseldine
Feb 15, 20232 min read
Turning Slowly
Following yesterday’s US CPI release we update some of our favourite charts on inflations and inflation expectations
13 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Jan 6, 20231 min read
Fading Away
Inflation pressures are subsiding, especially in the goods sector..
14 views
Alex Haseldine
Dec 1, 20221 min read
November PMI Note
In November, manufacturing new orders in Asia and the Americas extended their contractions at 44.6 and 45.2 respectively. In Europe new...
32 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Nov 20, 20223 min read
Unsettled
The Fed doesn’t care that much that inflation has probably peaked; the important question is "where will it settle”?
48 views
Alex Haseldine
Nov 4, 20222 min read
Bullard on Wars and Inflation
FOMC member James Bullard makes the connection between the current inflation and the effect of major wars.
27 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Nov 3, 20221 min read
10 Charts on War, Inflation and Asset Prices
Wars are inflationary, period. That is one of the clearest lessons of history, as we document below.
23 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Oct 20, 20223 min read
Perception Gaps
At the global equity market peak last year, financial assets were strongly outperforming the real economy, a state we refer to as bearish...
25 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Oct 13, 20221 min read
The Fed as Bean Counter
The Fed now has an explicit dual mandate (low inflation and full employment). What if we assumed that de facto it has always had a dual...
15 views
Alex Haseldine
Oct 7, 20221 min read
The US Labour Market is Starting to Cool Down
The US labour market is still running hot, with very large numbers of quits and new hiring compared to normal. But the data suggests that...
12 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Sep 28, 20226 min read
When the Fed Panics What Does the Market Do?
Panic is the short answer. Some thoughts on the longer answer below…..
38 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Sep 13, 20221 min read
Dangerous Territory
Today’s US CPI report delivered another shock to markets by giving investors even more reason to fear a Fed policy mistake.
18 views
Alex Haseldine
Aug 23, 20221 min read
Backlogs Down, Inflation Cooling
Today's Flash PMIs confirmed that order backlogs peaked in summer 2021 and have plummeted over the last 8 months. Output prices were...
9 views
Alex Haseldine
Aug 10, 20222 min read
Taking the Lead on Inflation
Today’s CPI report in the US surprised on the downside, a welcome change from the dismal run of higher than expected inflation readings...
33 views
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