September Payrolls: The Economy's Doing Fine
The Q3 slowdown in payroll growth (smaller than previously advertised) is a productivity story, not a recession story. See charts below:
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Alex Haseldine
Sep 63 min read
Flirting with Fifty
Taken as a whole, this week's US labour market data, including today's Employment Report, gives the FOMC enough cover to start easing...
28 views
Alex Haseldine
Mar 15, 20232 min read
Sticky But Not Stuck
Bringing down the stickier components of inflation was never going to be easy, but they have gradually drifted down from a high level.
25 views
Alex Haseldine
Mar 10, 20232 min read
Slowly, Slowly, Catchee Monkey
Competition for workers has been fierce but it now seems to be cooling down. Perhaps the Fed can afford to be more patient.
14 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Jan 6, 20231 min read
Fading Away
Inflation pressures are subsiding, especially in the goods sector..
14 views
Jonathan Wilmot
Nov 20, 20223 min read
Unsettled
The Fed doesn’t care that much that inflation has probably peaked; the important question is "where will it settle”?
48 views
Alex Haseldine
Oct 7, 20221 min read
The US Labour Market is Starting to Cool Down
The US labour market is still running hot, with very large numbers of quits and new hiring compared to normal. But the data suggests that...
12 views
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