Employment slowing, wages slowing, labour supply catching up.
Private non-farm payroll increased by 206 thousand on the month, but after revisions to previous months, the net gain was 120k. Private payrolls are now growing at their slowest rate in the last 3 and a half years: 1.3% (annualised) on the quarter.
Further signs the labour market cooled in June:
The gap between the number of people in the workforce and total potential demand for labour (houshold employment if all job openings were filled) narrowed. The total number of jobs and available jobs exceed the workforce by just 0.7%. Had the participation rate remained constant since 2019, the workforce would be 0.4% larger than the potential number of jobs.
Wages cooled to 3.2% on a 6-month on 6-month basis, their lowest rate since November 2020.
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