The Q3 slowdown in payroll growth (smaller than previously advertised) is a productivity story, not a recession story. See charts below:
Chart 1: Currnent 6-month annualised growth rates:
NFP Growth: 1.3%
Civilian employment: 0.5%
Av Ex-Recessions = 1.7%
Chart 2: Current GDP Tracker: 3.3%
Chart 3: (Log Level)
Chart 4: Current Real Earned Income Proxy: 3.2%
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